Mastering the different techniques of Blackjack becomes easier once you start referring to blackjack probability chart or a particular strategy. For decades, card counters have relied on Blackjack strategies paired with card counting techniques to win significant amounts of money. If you start calculating the Blackjack probabilities, you will find that it barely covers up to 60-80% of the game. So, how to find out the rest of the probabilities? This is where Blackjack deviations come into play.

These deviations can be used at times when the player wants to alter his play. Note that the Blackjack deviations are not based on a hunch or winning pattern. They are solely mathematically driven. Basically, there are two types of deviations – playing deviations and betting deviations.

In American roulette, there are two 'zeroes' (0, 00) and 36 non-zero numbers (18 red and 18 black).This leads to a higher house edge compared to European roulette. The chances of a player, who bets 1 unit on red, winning is 18/38 and his chances of losing 1 unit is 20/38. Playing Deviations are times when the true count dictates a decision that differs from Basic Strategy. Basic Strategy is the default correct playing decision for every possible hand combination in Blackjack. But as the Running and True Counts change, there are times that the ג€ correctג€ play also changes. The following table contains what is known as the Illustrious 18 (for multi-deck games). It summarizes the most important hands for deviating from basic strategy (the ones that give you the most bang for your buck). (Developed by Blackjack Hall of Famer Don Schlesinger, author of the authoritative book Blackjack Attack: Playing the Pros' Way. Reward #2: I finally figured WTH is Illustrious 18, and Google and read until I found this neat regrouping of the 18 deviations. Insurance: Insure at +3 or higher. Stand/Hit: 12 vs 2: Stand at +3 or higher, otherwise hit. 12 vs 3: Stand at +2 or higher, otherwise hit. 12 v 4: Stand at 0 or higher, otherwise hit. True Count and Deviations - Advanced Blackjack Strategies # 5. In the previous series on advanced blackjack playing strategies, I explained how to use card counting to vary your bets and gain the edge over the casino. In essence you bet more when the count tells you have the advantage and bet less when the count indicates the dealer has the.

Types of Blackjack deviations

Let’s talk about playing deviations. During the gaming session, the player can deviate from the basic blackjack strategy as due to true count changing the card composition has changed. Take an example. During normal times, the player will hit a 12 against a 2. But, if the true count is above 3, statistically it is better for the player to stand a 12 against a 2. Therefore, as per the playing deviations, the player needs to hit 12 against 2 before a true 3 and stand down against it anytime above true 3.

Coming to betting deviations, it refers to the times when the player has to change their bet. The edge of the game changes as the true count changes. The player will bet less when the casino has the edge but will bet more as the edge moves to the player. The bets need to be calculated mathematically by extensive training and betting software. The betting deviations are applied when the player changes the betting unit based on the running count. It is common sense to bet less when the true count is siding with the casino. Be careful. Exploiting betting deviations usually attracts the attention of the pit bosses.

As you see that the deviations are based on the true count, hence learning to count cards is very critical to master these trick. It takes a great deal of labour and practice to learn this technique. Remember that the deviations are meant to increase your odds of winning, not help you to win every hand!

Can it help you win?

Blackjack deviations are only important if you want to enhance the expected value or EV. It depends on the player to alter the moves based on what has been dealt on the table. These deviations cannot guarantee you a 100% win, unlike the basic strategy charts which guide you to win the game. So, can it help you to win a game of Blackjack? Partially, yes and no! Deviations are not for you if you are not into card counting. Still, learning and using it helps you to gain some invaluable benefits through the course of the game. It is important for the player to master the basic strategies before learning how deviations work. If you cannot recall the moves of your Blackjack strategy table or haven’t mastered card counting yet, it is better to not use this technique for your advantage.

How to master playing deviations?

The first step to master playing deviations is to learn how to calculate a running count and convert them to true count in games with multiple decks. Here, based on practice, you have to decide if using the deviations is well justified or not and if it is going to work to his advantage. To master this, you have to practice the deviation in different conditions and index values. Learning how to calculate Blackjack probabilities will also help in the future.

How to master betting deviations?

To master betting deviations, you have to be an expert in mastering how to calculate true count and blackjack probabilities in a matter of seconds. You have to change your bets if the true count is on your side. It is not easy to adjust the index numbers to justify a deviation. This is because there are around 170 index numbers and memorising all of them is an uphill task that needs a huge undertaking.

Still, you can try out the ‘Illustrious 18’ which is basically a list of 18 playing deviations based on Blackjack basic strategy. It is made by a mathematician named Donald Schlesinger. If you manage to learn this and incorporate the variations and probabilities in your game, you will have a good chance of increasing your winning chances.

Mar 26, 2014

While poker requires people reading skills to win and roulette just requires a hell of a lot of luck, blackjack on the other hand boasts one of the lowest houses edges in the casino, making it the game to place your bets on, but how can you use mathematics to your advantage?

It doesn’t take long to learn perfect basic blackjack strategy, and if you know what you’re doing you can even get as far as lowering the house edge to 0.5%.

The house edge alone is not a determining factor in whether you win or lose, since the unexpected always happens in cards, which is why it’s called gambling in the first place, but there is a mathematical area for deviation that can give you an insight into your winning and losses.

The secret behind blackjack lies in the mathematics behind statistics, in the variance and its standard deviation.

Deviating from the standard

When you use strategy to lower the house edge down to 0.5%, theoretically this means that after playing a certain amount of time, you’ll lose 0.5% of your money, which goes back to the casino.

Some basic blackjack strategy tips:

• Always hit a hard 4 to 8

• Always stand on a hard 17 and on any combination above 18

• Surrender a 16 versus 10

• Double a hard 10 or 11 if more than the dealer

However, real life is not as simple as that, since there is always room for a variation, which mathematically is deemed as the “variance”, which is calculated by measuring the standard deviation.

In statistics, probability is not an act of chaos with no pattern, but rather follows a bell curve, where the middle corresponds with the average, and the distribution shows all the possible outcomes and their probabilities.

Blackjack Deviations 18 High

The standard deviation is essentially the number marking the number of units falling to each side of the average, which means that 68% of the outcomes will fall within the standard deviation of the average.

Mathematically, this also means that 95% and 99.7% of the outcomes will fall within 2 and 3 standard deviations, respectively.

Standard deviation and its effect on blackjack

If you account for all the blackjack rules and basic strategy of blackjack, the standard deviation of the game falls at the value of 1.14, in general.

This means that in a game with a 0.5% house edge, the standard deviation marks the odds to win and lose on both sides of the bell curve. This means that 68% of the time you’d either win or lose 1.14 units, and 95% of the time win or lose 2.28 units.

But again, statistics also shifts depending on how many hands you play, and the more hands you do play mean that you get closer to the average. Thereby by including the variable of your dealt hands, you can predict your winning and losing likelihood by a fixed number.

To calculate the amount you win or lose, you basically take the square root of the number of hands played and multiply by 1.14.

So that means for 100 hands of blackjack, yields a standard deviation of 11.4 in this case. So betting, say, $1 per hand would yield an expected loss of 50cents, since the house edge is 0.5% (for 200 hands, this would go up to $1).

If you play 100 hands, then there is a 68% chance you could win or lose $11.4, for example. While there is room for manoeuvre, you can use standard deviation to budget your losses.

Show me the money

Let’s take a more concrete example. Let’s see how often you would lose $50 in a game of blackjack using the above examples.

To calculate this you need to factor in the expected loss (50cents for 100 hands) and measure the difference from the actual loss ($50 in this case). So the difference applied here is $49.5.

You then need to apply the standard deviation for your set of hands, so for 100 hands this is 11.4, as seen before, and divide this difference so 49.5/11.4 = 4.34.

Blackjack Deviations 18 +

This means losing $50 is over 3 standard deviations, so the chances of winning or losing the amount is in the margin of around 0.3% of time.

Using standard deviation can help you to optimize and minimize your risk. Playing 100 hands of blackjack and betting $1, with setting your maximum loss at $50, means that you’re only likely to lose that amount 0.3% of the time.

To maximize your blackjack game, you simply need a smart strategy and a bit of statistics know-how.

Playing with standard deviation means you can leave your card counting system at home for once, and not get yourself banned from a casino.

Tags: blackjack strategy, card counting system, smart strategy, Standard deviation, Variance

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